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Techno-Economic Modelling for Energy Projects
Linking engineering assumptions to cash flow, IRR, DSCR and payback, tested against Nepal's real tariff structure rather than a single optimistic case.
What techno-economic modelling covers
An engineering assessment tells you whether a system works. A techno-economic model tells you whether it pays for itself, and under which conditions it stops paying for itself. That means turning engineering assumptions — capacity, generation, degradation, operating cost — into cash flow, then testing that cash flow against IRR, DSCR and payback across realistic scenarios, not a single optimistic case.
In Nepal specifically, that means modelling against the real tariff structure: NEA's wholesale power purchase rates, the retail tariff, and the gap between them, which is driven by transmission, distribution, losses and network expansion, and which is only going to widen over the next decade.
What I deliver
Financial models linking engineering assumptions directly to cash flow, IRR, DSCR and payback. Tariff and subsidy scenario analysis for projects operating under Nepal's net metering framework. Business model analysis for financing structures beyond a standard owner-operator project, including public-private-community partnership structures for community-scale infrastructure.
How I work
Modelling work is built to be interrogated, not just presented. That means documented assumptions, sensitivity analysis on the variables that actually move the outcome, and a model structure a client's own finance team can open and follow, rather than a black box that only I can explain.
Where I've done it
Co-authored a policy brief for the Nepal Policy Forum modelling the long-term wholesale electricity price for the Nepal Electricity Authority, examining the fiscal implications of Nepal's roughly 12,000 MW power purchase agreement pipeline on wholesale prices and retail tariffs.
Financial modelling for solar lift irrigation business models across funding structures, land ownership patterns and pumping heads, identifying sustainable public-private-community partnership models for the International Water Management Institute.
Financial projections and cost verification feeding into the revised bill of quantities for a 26-site, 6.76 MWp DC commercial rooftop solar programme.
Frequently asked
What tools do you build financial models in?
Excel and VBA, for scenario and sensitivity analysis at the depth a single spreadsheet formula set can't handle cleanly.
Can you model tariff and subsidy scenarios specific to Nepal?
Yes. Modelling work has covered NEA's net metering tariff structure directly, including the gap between wholesale power purchase rates and retail tariffs, and how it's expected to move over the next decade.
Is this only for solar, or other project types too?
The method applies wherever engineering assumptions need to become a financial case: solar PV, solar lift irrigation, and grid-scale tariff forecasting have all used the same underlying approach.
Do you only model the finances, or also the underlying engineering?
Both, usually in the same engagement. See the feasibility study and CFD pages for the engineering side this modelling typically sits alongside.